Unilateral trade preferences and export growth in developing countries (with Jo Van Biesebroeck). The World Bank Economic Review. May 2025.
Trade liberalization and the extensive margin of differentiated goods: evidence from China (with Jo Van Biesebroeck and Yingting Yi). The World Economy, 2022.
Information frictions and the two margins of trade: evidence from Slovenian manufacturing (with Sašo Polanec), June 2023.
Abstract: We empirically investigate whether firms through exporting indirectly lower their information frictions associated with foreign sourcing. Using a panel of Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1996-2011, we estimate the probability of import entry in a new market when the firm is already exporting to the same country and we find a positive and significant relation. To control for the endogeneity of the export decision, we implement an IV approach exploiting two features of trade: the notion of sequential exporting and the presence of country-sector specific demand shocks. Moreover, we rule out productivity growth as being the only predictor of entry in a foreign market through several falsification tests. This points out that information frictions do play an important role for firms trading in international markets.
Common ownership and market power: evidence from EU manufacturing (with Chiara Bellucci and Daniele Verdini)
Abstract: The phenomenon of common ownership — where large institutional investors hold shares in multiple firms — is increasingly prevalent in both the US and Europe. Using detailed firm-level balance sheet and ownership data for the European manufacturing sector from 2010 to 2019, we document the rise of common ownership and examine its impact on firm performance and market competition. We distinguish between intra-industry and inter-industry common ownership, following recent developments in the literature. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we provide causal evidence that intra-industry common ownership increases markups, reflecting reduced competition, while inter-industry common ownership is associated with lower markups, potentially due to technological spillovers across sectors.
(Un)intended spillovers of export controls: evidence on the semiconductor production chain (with Paolo Bonnet and Andrea Ciani)
Abstract: Export controls play a strategic role in the ongoing technological race between the United States and China. Evidence on the effect of these policy tools on exports from countries indirectly impacted is still scarce. We collect information on unilateral US export control measures targeting China on semiconductors and semiconductor-related HS 6-digit products, and merge it with monthly trade data on exports from several countries operating in the semiconductor supply chain. First, we find a negative, significant, effect on US exports of chips. Second, results show positive and significant effects on the exports of equipment for the manufacturing of semiconductors from the EU, Japan and Singapore. This evidence is suggestive of a lack of indirect enforcement of US policies on foreign jurisdictions, but also indicates temporary stockpiling of Chinese companies in anticipation of more stringent restrictions applied consistently by the major players in the value chain.
Adapting supply chains: the role of climate shocks (with Andrea Ciani, Filippo Maria D'Arcangelo and Mélina London)
Abstract: Global value chains enhance production efficiency by enabling firms to source inputs from the most competitive suppliers worldwide. However, increasing exposure to climate-related hazards poses a growing risk to their stability. This paper examines the impact of climate hazards—such as floods, storms, droughts, heatwaves, and landslides—on firm performance and the structure of global supply chains. We first analyze the direct effects of these shocks on supplier firms, and then investigate how downstream clients adapt by reconfiguring their sourcing strategies. Leveraging firm-level supply chain data from FactSet and geo-referenced disaster data from EM-DAT, together with financial data from Orbis, we construct a comprehensive global database covering over 100,000 firms over the period 2017-2024. Our preliminary results show that disasters such as floods and storms significantly reduce firm performance, while other hazards have more limited direct effects. Furthermore, we find that firms adapt by switching to suppliers located in regions less exposed to similar climate risks, particularly in cases involving younger supplier relationships and less specific inputs.
M&As, innovation and superstar firms (with Maria Martinez Cillero, Lorenzo Napolitano, Francesco Rentocchini, and Cecilia Seri)
Abstract: Rising market concentration and the dominance of superstar firms have raised concerns about declining competition and innovation. While technological change and globalization are recognized drivers, mergers and acquisitions (M&As) have also been identified as potential contributors to these trends. This paper investigates whether firms strategically use technological M&As—acquisitions of innovative subsidiaries holding patents to increase their market power. Using a global panel of 8,273 publicly listed firms over 2008–2020, we exploit a staggered difference-in-differences approach to estimate the causal effect of technological M&As on firms’ markups. We find that such acquisitions lead to a temporary 2% increase in markup, with stronger effects among top R&D investors. The primary mechanism appears to be insulation from rivals via the acquisition of patent stocks, reducing knowledge spillovers and raising barriers to entry. Our results highlight the need to consider the competitive implications of technological M&As and call for antitrust policies that balance innovation incentives with the risks of market power concentration.
A methodological toolbox to monitor the semiconductors’ supply-chain (with Jozsef Molnar and Michela Nardo)
Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, JRC138921, 2024.
The EC consultation on the semiconductors’ value chain (with Nicoletta Rosati, Paolo Bonnet, Andrea Ciani, Nestor Duch Brown, and Sebastián Miguez)
Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg (doi:10.2760/609020, JRC133892). 2023
Effects of trade liberalization on textile and apparel exports from Sub-Sahara Africa (with Jo Van Biesebroeck)
Policy Research Working Paper; No. 8936. World Bank, Washington, DC. 2019.
America First!'What are the Job Losses for Belgium and Europe? (with Hylke Vandenbussche, William Connell Garcia and Wouter Simons)
VIVES Briefing 2017/01: 1-6. 2017.
Global value chains and GDP growth in the post-crisis context (with Carlo Altomonte and Italo Colantone)
Chapter 7, Measuring competitiveness in Europe: resource allocation, granularity and trade, 118. 2016.